Saturday, May 30, 2009

Fisher says economy has long way to go to recover

Review of comments from Dallas Fed:
A very slow recovery
Economy has a long way to go before a clear recovery starts kicking.
Fisher says “A sudden new set of circumstances, easy money seemingly heaven-sent and the short-sighted suspension of time-tested, prudent financial practice led us on the road, not to salvation, but to economic perdition.” To aid this argument fable about a man visiting Episcopal church after getting aid from a presbyterian pastor describes the current economic situation very aptly.
Geo Political factors and Technological factors
End of cold war and commercial reorientation of Asian and eastern European countries has unleashed enormous new capacity for production of goods and services and capped the costs. Technological advancements have created new forces that connected remote corners of the world to trading centers and became source for new place to invest and speculate.
Fed is trying to prevent past errors and of course it acted as pastor earlier and has not stopped from being so.
The Green Shoots (Financial Economy)
Revival of Commercial paper Market
Decline of Mortgage rates significantly
Robust corporate bond issuance market
Invest grade corps premium over treasury has fallen
All measures compared to last fall have improved.
The Green Shoots (Main Street)
New orders index shows rise
Moderations in decline of activity (Fed survey)
Job losses are reduced
Monetary policy initiatives have given rise to these green shoots. Side effects are inflation. But fed is very aware of these facts and taking every measure not unleash the ugly monster of inflation.
So far financial markets have taken these green shoots and have risen from last week. From here where are we headed next week? Next we have GM bankruptcy filing and unemployment report.

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