Week Ahead

Weekly Summary


ISM (Services): March ISM (S) index will be released on Monday and consensus forecast is at 54 compared to February.

Pending home sales: Pending home sales report suggesting slight decline will also be reported on Monday.

One important event of the day is Fed’s meeting to review the discount lending rate. Discount lending rate decision will have impact on the banks borrowing from the Fed’s discount window. I believe Fed is in the mode of burnishing its credentials to fight inflation by adjusting discount rate and at the same time keeping the Fed funds rate at current level so that it will not derail the growth process that is underway.

On Tuesday we will get FOMC meeting minutes. I think this still remain a low key event.

For Oil markets there is one release that can directly affect is crude Oil inventories.

Finally Wholesale inventories will be released on Friday.



Markets are closed in Europe for Easter. In US markets will open on Monday and it will be a testing day. In Equity markets, we will see a huge gains and will be a testing week if markets can hold on to the gains and trend higher.

Dollar is poised to get stronger at behest of strong growth theme in US.

Bond Markets will have to digest treasury supply and Fed meeting minutes. Last week Non Farm Payrolls have caused a selloff in treasuries. This week USM10 will be testing key support levels.

Oil has broken the 70-80 dollar range and currently trading at $85. Strong growth rate in US will drive oil higher. This week we will also have the oil inventory data that will weigh in. Last month WSJ carried an article suggesting that inventory measurement activity is prone to lot of inconsistencies. Need to see how market will react to inventory data from this perspective.