Sunday, July 20, 2014

BRICS bank will it live upto itsexpecations?

India Financial Markets -- BRICS Bank – will it deliver as intended? We think not.
Narendra Modi in his Fortaleza speech in Brazil has delivered a strong message against terrorism and collaboration among BRIC countries.
He started of his speech with “I come from a land where the idea of the 'whole world being one family' is rooted in our ethos -Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam. “ in a very friendly manner. This statement makes me feel like he borrowed a point from Swami Vivekananda’s speech at Chicago’s World religious conference in 1893. From here he delved on his views of various geopolitical events including conflict in Syria, Iraq and Israel-Palestine. Now, looking a bit detail what is on the minds of BRICS leader when they have decided to start the BRICS bank (see full summary). They wanted a fund to help each other during the time of economic crisis. This fund will have China as majority stakeholder. This brings to the point in a world with IMF and World Bank do we need another regional group. I am in favor of having likeminded groups for prosperity. Do BRICS share similar economic and political trajectories in global setting? I do not think so. BRICS – [ Brazil – Russia – India – China – South Africa]. BRICS is an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs banker to group together growing emerging market countries. From then on financial markets looking for a narrative for market changes has borrowed this theme heavily on analyzing their investment thesis. How similar are these entities apart from being termed as big and developing countries when the name BRIC coined. Democratic form of ruling is at the core for (Brazil, India and South Africa) and diametrically opposite philosophy of autocracy prevails in (China and Russia). This kind of fundamental difference in ideology will become main hindrance at the time crisis to arrive at consensus based solutions.
China has clearly signaled to the world that it has to be taken seriously in the global scenario. Its policy of aggression with its neighbors in south china sea, cyber security issues with United states. China is net creditor to developed countries. It is ambitions are replace United States at the top of global power order and accordingly projecting its power when west is retreating. Like China, Russia under the Putin’s stewardship is living as bulwark for bullying neighboring countries. Russia hold keys to natural gas supply to the Europe and therefore it is able to take a confrontation position with west. Now other members, Brazil, India and South Africa each with their democracy framework, domestic financial issues (inflation, fiscal deficits) and corruption it higher places. BRICS group so different in everything except rising economies can be everything but a cohesive group.

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